Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23L
KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24W
KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25 Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25L
DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin StoltzfusMetricGerald Meerschaert
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin StoltzfusGerald Meerschaert
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +29.0|Blue -29.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin StoltzfusTargetGerald Meerschaert
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Gerald Meerschaert rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:21
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:03Control
Round 2Dustin Stoltzfus edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control3:56
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dustin Stoltzfus edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control1:10
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:11Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
