← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB R3

Elo1478

Elo1522

Geoff NealvsShavkat RakhmonovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:17

Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shavkat Rakhmonov at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Geoff Neal

Red Corner

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1478

Elo

1522

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Geoff NealMetricShavkat Rakhmonov

5.02

Strikes / min

3.25

5.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

57%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.40

87%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Geoff NealShavkat Rakhmonov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Geoff Neal(10 fights)Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.3|Blue +44.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Geoff NealTargetShavkat Rakhmonov

By target zone

46% acc · 91%

Head

53% acc · 61%

67% acc · 6%

Body

89% acc · 35%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

44% acc · 83%

Distance

56% acc · 65%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

81% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Geoff Neal rounds

even

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:48

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 2Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:24

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 145

Sig Strikes

113 / 179

48.7%

Sig Str %

64.7%

69 / 145

Total Strikes

120 / 186

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

3:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	43 / 64	46 / 67	0 / 1	0
1	Geoff Neal	29 / 54	29 / 54	0 / 0	0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	35 / 70	35 / 70	0 / 1	0
2	Geoff Neal	20 / 57	20 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Shavkat Rakhmonov	35 / 45	39 / 49	0 / 2	1
3	Geoff Neal	20 / 34	20 / 34	0 / 0	0

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7