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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Farid Basharat won · U-DEC R3

Elo1576

Elo1498

Farid BasharatvsVictor HugoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Farid Basharat won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFarid Basharat: WrestlervsVictor Hugo: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Farid Basharat wins(85.2%)

Actual result: Farid Basharat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Farid Basharat at -575 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Farid Basharat enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Victor Hugo has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Farid Basharat

Red Corner

Victor Hugo

Blue Corner

-575

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1576

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Farid BasharatW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kleydson Rodrigues · Sep 23

vs Taylor Lapilus · Jan 24

vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 25

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 26

DECvs John Garza · Jul 26

latest

Victor Hugo

oldest →

vs Pedro Falcao · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Farid BasharatMetricVictor Hugo

4.25

Strikes / min

3.27

2.89

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

62%

Strike defense

56%

3.34

TDs / 15 min

0.81

54%

Takedown defense

73%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.36Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Farid BasharatVictor Hugo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Farid Basharat(7 fights)Victor Hugo(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.6|Blue -78.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Farid BasharatTargetVictor Hugo

By target zone

40% acc · 65%

Head

28% acc · 51%

62% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 31%

87% acc · 22%

Leg

53% acc · 18%

By position

47% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 96%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

57% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Farid Basharat rounds

even

Victor Hugo rounds

Round 1Farid Basharat edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:42

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:02

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Farid Basharat edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns4

Control3:53

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 126

Sig Strikes

45 / 125

48.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

89 / 168

Total Strikes

48 / 128

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 4

33%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:37

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Victor Hugo	10 / 38	11 / 39	0 / 3	1
1	Farid Basharat	22 / 38	27 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Victor Hugo	25 / 66	25 / 66	1 / 1	0
2	Farid Basharat	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 0	0
3	Victor Hugo	10 / 21	12 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Farid Basharat	8 / 17	32 / 47	4 / 6	0

Farid Basharat

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Victor Hugo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2