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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Farid Basharat won · U-DEC R3
Elo1576
Farid Basharat editorial illustration
Elo1510
Taylor Lapilus

Farid BasharatvsTaylor LapilusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Saturday, January 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Farid Basharat won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFarid Basharat: WrestlervsTaylor Lapilus: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Farid Basharat wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Farid Basharat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Farid Basharat at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Farid Basharat enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Taylor Lapilus enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Taylor Lapilus has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Farid Basharat
Red Corner
VS
Taylor Lapilus
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1576
Elo
1510
28
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'6"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Farid BasharatW5 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kleydson Rodrigues · Sep 23
W
vs Victor Hugo · Oct 24
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 25
W
vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 26
W
DECvs John Garza · Jul 26
latest
Taylor LapilusW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Erik Perez · Nov 15
W
vs Leandro Issa · Sep 16
W
vs Caolan Loughran · Sep 23
W
vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24
W
vs Vince Morales · Sep 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Farid BasharatMetricTaylor Lapilus
4.25
Strikes / min
4.59
2.89
Strikes absorbed / min
2.61
62%
Strike defense
62%
3.34
TDs / 15 min
0.27
54%
Takedown defense
77%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.36evenly matched on net striking+1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1545Strikes4.5 vs 4.3Takedowns4.0 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.30Form1.0 vs 1.0
Farid BasharatTaylor Lapilus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901515154015651590← oldermost recent →
Farid Basharat(7 fights)Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +65.9|Blue -65.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Farid BasharatTargetTaylor Lapilus

By target zone

14
26% acc · 33%
Head
24
36% acc · 60%
7
37% acc · 17%
Body
11
69% acc · 28%
21
75% acc · 50%
Leg
5
50% acc · 13%

By position

39
42% acc · 93%
Distance
34
40% acc · 85%
2
40% acc · 5%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 5%
1
33% acc · 2%
Ground
4
100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Farid Basharat rounds
0
even
0
Taylor Lapilus rounds
Round 1Farid Basharat edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:37
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Farid Basharat edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns2
Control2:28
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Farid Basharat edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control2:53
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 100
Sig Strikes
40 / 93
41.7%
Sig Str %
41.3%
55 / 116
Total Strikes
41 / 94
5 / 16
TDs
0 / 0
39.3%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:58
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Taylor Lapilus14 / 2915 / 300 / 00
1Farid Basharat14 / 3520 / 411 / 80
2Taylor Lapilus19 / 3919 / 390 / 00
2Farid Basharat15 / 3318 / 372 / 50
3Taylor Lapilus7 / 257 / 250 / 00
3Farid Basharat13 / 3217 / 382 / 31

Farid Basharat

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw
Height66.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8