Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tom Nolan won · Decision R3

Elo1528

Elo1562

Fares ZiamvsTom NolanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Tom Nolan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Tom Nolan

Style matchupFares Ziam: Well-roundedvsTom Nolan: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Fares Ziam wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Fares Ziam has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Fares Ziam

Red Corner

Tom Nolan

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1528

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fares ZiamW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jai Herbert · Jul 23

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

latest

Tom NolanW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24

KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24

vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25

SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fares ZiamMetricTom Nolan

2.87

Strikes / min

5.87

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.73

65%

Strike defense

48%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.74

71%

Takedown defense

71%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34evenly matched on net striking+1.14

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fares Ziam(10 fights)Tom Nolan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.0|Blue +34.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fares ZiamTargetTom Nolan

By target zone

42% acc · 69%

Head

34% acc · 42%

75% acc · 19%

Body

69% acc · 35%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

58% acc · 23%

By position

46% acc · 75%

Distance

41% acc · 42%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

54% acc · 23%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

52% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fares Ziam rounds

even

Tom Nolan rounds

Round 1Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:38

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 2Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:49

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:10Control

Round 3Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:40

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 32

Sig Strikes

31 / 66

52.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

48 / 70

Total Strikes

65 / 116

3 / 5

TDs

2 / 6

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:07

Ctrl Time

6:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Nolan	13 / 25	24 / 42	2 / 2	0
1	Fares Ziam	6 / 13	14 / 23	1 / 2	0
2	Tom Nolan	12 / 19	26 / 37	0 / 2	0
2	Fares Ziam	6 / 13	14 / 22	0 / 1	1
3	Tom Nolan	6 / 22	15 / 37	0 / 2	0
3	Fares Ziam	4 / 6	20 / 25	2 / 2	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 41% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6