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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1495

Fares ZiamvsMike DavisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFares Ziam: Well-roundedvsMike Davis: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Fares Ziam wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fares Ziam at +122 American odds

+$122 profit

$222 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Fares Ziam

Red Corner

Mike Davis

Blue Corner

+122

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-144

(59%)

1528

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Jai Herbert · Jul 23

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Mike Davis

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Jan 21

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Oct 22

SUBvs Natan Levy · Mar 24

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 25

DECvs Nurullo Aliev · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fares ZiamMetricMike Davis

2.87

Strikes / min

4.73

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

65%

Strike defense

54%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

2.40

71%

Takedown defense

60%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fares ZiamMike Davis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fares Ziam(10 fights)Mike Davis(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.9|Blue -32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fares ZiamTargetMike Davis

By target zone

58% acc · 83%

Head

50% acc · 65%

100% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 25%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 10%

By position

61% acc · 57%

Distance

54% acc · 65%

83% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

59% acc · 29%

Ground

56% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fares Ziam rounds

even

Mike Davis rounds

Round 1Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:23

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:31

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 3Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 56

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

61.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

58 / 83

Total Strikes

30 / 49

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 8

66.7%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

7:11

Ctrl Time

3:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Davis	8 / 15	10 / 18	1 / 5	0
1	Fares Ziam	16 / 24	20 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Mike Davis	6 / 8	8 / 10	0 / 3	1
2	Fares Ziam	10 / 18	23 / 33	1 / 2	0
3	Mike Davis	6 / 12	12 / 21	0 / 0	0
3	Fares Ziam	9 / 14	15 / 21	2 / 4	0

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Mike Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9