Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1493

Fares ZiamvsMichal FiglakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFares Ziam: Well-roundedvsMichal Figlak: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Michal Figlak wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Figlak at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Fares Ziam has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fares Ziam

Red Corner

Michal Figlak

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1528

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Michal Figlak

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fares ZiamMetricMichal Figlak

2.87

Strikes / min

4.00

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

65%

Strike defense

52%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

0.50

71%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fares ZiamMichal Figlak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fares Ziam(10 fights)Michal Figlak(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.6|Blue -34.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fares ZiamTargetMichal Figlak

By target zone

42% acc · 57%

Head

18% acc · 46%

93% acc · 22%

Body

56% acc · 32%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

58% acc · 75%

Distance

28% acc · 89%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

48% acc · 22%

Ground

43% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fares Ziam rounds

even

Michal Figlak rounds

Round 1Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:25

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:23

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 108

Sig Strikes

28 / 96

56%

Sig Str %

27.7%

111 / 162

Total Strikes

55 / 126

3 / 7

TDs

1 / 5

44.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

6:48

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michal Figlak	15 / 46	25 / 56	0 / 2
1	Fares Ziam	24 / 39	32 / 47	1 / 2
2	Michal Figlak	5 / 20	15 / 31	0 / 1
2	Fares Ziam	19 / 42	49 / 75	1 / 2
3	Michal Figlak	8 / 30	15 / 39	1 / 2
3	Fares Ziam	17 / 27	30 / 40	1 / 3

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Michal Figlak

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2