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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1528

Elo1483

Fares ZiamvsMatt FrevolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Saturday, September 28, 2024Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:59

Style matchupFares Ziam: Well-roundedvsMatt Frevola: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Fares Ziam wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fares Ziam at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fares Ziam has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fares Ziam

Red Corner

Matt Frevola

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1528

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Jai Herbert · Jul 23

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Matt FrevolaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fares ZiamMetricMatt Frevola

2.87

Strikes / min

3.30

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

65%

Strike defense

56%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

2.34

71%

Takedown defense

40%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34Δ 1.80 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fares ZiamMatt Frevola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fares Ziam(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.4|Blue -44.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fares ZiamTargetMatt Frevola

By target zone

57% acc · 76%

Head

16% acc · 44%

79% acc · 19%

Body

58% acc · 44%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

60% acc · 78%

Distance

18% acc · 56%

78% acc · 12%

Clinch

70% acc · 44%

60% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fares Ziam rounds

even

Matt Frevola rounds

Round 1Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:20

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control1:10

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control2:13

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 94

Sig Strikes

16 / 59

61%

Sig Str %

20.3%

69 / 107

Total Strikes

25 / 72

4 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

4:43

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Frevola	9 / 22	12 / 27	1 / 3	1
1	Fares Ziam	18 / 29	24 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Frevola	7 / 32	12 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Fares Ziam	34 / 55	37 / 60	1 / 1	1
3	Matt Frevola	0 / 5	1 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Fares Ziam	6 / 10	8 / 12	3 / 3	0

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10