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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · M-DEC R3

Elo1528

Elo1407

Fares ZiamvsLuigi VendraminiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFares Ziam: Well-roundedvsLuigi Vendramini: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Luigi Vendramini wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luigi Vendramini at +102 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luigi Vendramini has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fares Ziam

Red Corner

Luigi Vendramini

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1528

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Luigi Vendramini

oldest →

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Sep 18

KOvs Jessin Ayari · Oct 20

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fares ZiamMetricLuigi Vendramini

2.87

Strikes / min

2.82

1.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

65%

Strike defense

57%

1.73

TDs / 15 min

1.11

71%

Takedown defense

100%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.34Δ 2.34 — meaningful gap-1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fares ZiamLuigi Vendramini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fares Ziam(10 fights)Luigi Vendramini(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +120.6|Blue -120.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fares ZiamTargetLuigi Vendramini

By target zone

23% acc · 62%

Head

26% acc · 56%

100% acc · 21%

Body

69% acc · 32%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 12%

By position

31% acc · 95%

Distance

31% acc · 76%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

Ground

56% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fares Ziam rounds

even

Luigi Vendramini rounds

Round 1Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Luigi Vendramini edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 121

Sig Strikes

34 / 95

33.3%

Sig Str %

34%

43 / 125

Total Strikes

50 / 116

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luigi Vendramini	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 1
1	Fares Ziam	14 / 42	14 / 42	0 / 0
2	Luigi Vendramini	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 4
2	Fares Ziam	18 / 61	18 / 61	0 / 0
3	Luigi Vendramini	17 / 37	33 / 58	1 / 1
3	Fares Ziam	7 / 18	11 / 22	0 / 0

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Luigi Vendramini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4