← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1402

Fabricio WerdumvsWalt HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:05

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsWalt Harris: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walt Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Walt Harris has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Walt Harris

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1493

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Walt HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19

KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricWalt Harris

3.59

Strikes / min

3.05

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

55%

Strike defense

54%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.29

31%

Takedown defense

70%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumWalt Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Walt Harris(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.9|Blue -90.9

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetWalt Harris

By target zone

0% acc

Head

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Walt Harris rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:31

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

Sig Str %

—

0 / 1

Total Strikes

0 / 0

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Walt Harris	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Fabricio Werdum	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15