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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1361

Fabricio WerdumvsTravis BrowneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsTravis Browne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Fabricio Werdum has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Travis Browne has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Travis Browne

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1493

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Travis BrowneL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · May 15

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricTravis Browne

3.59

Strikes / min

2.93

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

55%

Strike defense

42%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.21

31%

Takedown defense

75%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumTravis Browne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Travis Browne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.6|Blue -131.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetTravis Browne

By target zone

45% acc · 49%

Head

22% acc · 73%

75% acc · 29%

Body

36% acc · 11%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

67% acc · 16%

By position

54% acc · 79%

Distance

25% acc · 95%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

89% acc · 10%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Travis Browne rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control1:30

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 142

Sig Strikes

37 / 143

57.7%

Sig Str %

28.3%

107 / 166

Total Strikes

38 / 144

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Travis Browne	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Fabricio Werdum	37 / 59	60 / 83	0 / 1	1
2	Travis Browne	11 / 42	12 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Fabricio Werdum	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 1	0
3	Travis Browne	14 / 71	14 / 71	0 / 0	0
3	Fabricio Werdum	28 / 44	28 / 44	0 / 1	0

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16