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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1361

Fabricio WerdumvsTravis BrowneUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsTravis Browne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Fabricio Werdum has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Travis Browne has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Travis Browne

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1493

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Travis BrowneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricTravis Browne

3.59

Strikes / min

2.93

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

55%

Strike defense

42%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.21

31%

Takedown defense

75%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumTravis Browne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Travis Browne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.6|Blue -131.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetTravis Browne

By target zone

53% acc · 68%

Head

29% acc · 60%

88% acc · 17%

Body

77% acc · 28%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

70% acc · 12%

By position

113

61% acc · 93%

Distance

34% acc · 80%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

75% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Travis Browne rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:27

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:04

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:27

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 4Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

121 / 196

Sig Strikes

60 / 156

61.4%

Sig Str %

37.8%

171 / 251

Total Strikes

77 / 173

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

40%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:03

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Travis Browne	17 / 30	24 / 37	0 / 0
1	Fabricio Werdum	21 / 37	45 / 61	1 / 1
2	Travis Browne	6 / 17	15 / 26	0 / 1
2	Fabricio Werdum	15 / 21	39 / 49	1 / 1
3	Travis Browne	13 / 35	14 / 36	0 / 0
3	Fabricio Werdum	38 / 54	40 / 56	0 / 1
4	Fabricio Werdum	18 / 33	18 / 34	0 / 1
4	Travis Browne	7 / 32	7 / 32	0 / 0
5	Travis Browne	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 0
5	Fabricio Werdum	29 / 51	29 / 51	0 / 2

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16