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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Stipe Miocic won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Fabricio Werdum
Elo1494
Stipe Miocic

Fabricio WerdumvsStipe MiocicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Stipe Miocic won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsStipe Miocic: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Stipe Miocic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stipe Miocic is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stipe Miocic has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum
Red Corner
VS
Stipe Miocic
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1493
Elo
1494
49
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
195.58 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum
oldest →
W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17
W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18
L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20
W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20
latest
Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18
W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19
W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20
L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Nov 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricStipe Miocic
3.59
Strikes / min
4.67
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
4.01
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
1.74
31%
Takedown defense
65%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1582 vs 1576Strikes48.2 vs 54.6Takedowns0.6 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.7
Fabricio WerdumStipe Miocic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetStipe Miocic

By target zone

5
25% acc · 33%
Head
10
48% acc · 50%
4
80% acc · 27%
Body
1
100% acc · 5%
6
75% acc · 40%
Leg
9
100% acc · 45%

By position

15
45% acc · 100%
Distance
16
59% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 5%
0
Ground
3
100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Fabricio Werdum rounds
0
even
1
Stipe Miocic rounds
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
15 / 33
Sig Strikes
20 / 31
45%
Sig Str %
64%
15 / 33
Total Strikes
20 / 31
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stipe Miocic20 / 3120 / 310 / 00
1Fabricio Werdum15 / 3315 / 330 / 10

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14

Stipe Miocic

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19