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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1352

Fabricio WerdumvsMike RussowUFC Prediction Result

UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · Saturday, June 23, 2012Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:28

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsMike Russow: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Russow wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Russow at +420 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Russow is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Fabricio Werdum has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fabricio Werdum has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Mike Russow

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1493

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Mike Russow

oldest →

KOvs Todd Duffee · May 10

KOvs Jon Madsen · Mar 11

vs Jon Olav Einemo · Jan 12

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricMike Russow

3.59

Strikes / min

1.55

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

55%

Strike defense

59%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

4.66

31%

Takedown defense

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumMike Russow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Mike Russow(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +140.7|Blue -140.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetMike Russow

By target zone

50% acc · 84%

Head

19% acc · 100%

67% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

49% acc · 58%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

68% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Mike Russow rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 58

Sig Strikes

3 / 16

53%

Sig Str %

18%

31 / 58

Total Strikes

3 / 16

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Russow	3 / 16	3 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Fabricio Werdum	31 / 58	31 / 58	0 / 0	0

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Mike Russow

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5