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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Fabricio Werdum won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1369

Fabricio WerdumvsMark HuntUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:27

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsMark Hunt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mark Hunt has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fabricio Werdum has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Mark Hunt

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1493

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Mark HuntL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricMark Hunt

3.59

Strikes / min

2.81

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.51

31%

Takedown defense

64%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumMark Hunt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Mark Hunt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +123.5|Blue -123.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetMark Hunt

By target zone

46% acc · 52%

Head

26% acc · 90%

63% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

56% acc · 67%

Distance

16% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 30%

58% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Mark Hunt rounds

Round 1Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 37

Sig Strikes

10 / 36

59%

Sig Str %

22.5%

31 / 48

Total Strikes

15 / 43

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

1:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Hunt	9 / 25	14 / 31	1 / 1
1	Fabricio Werdum	8 / 12	15 / 19	0 / 2
2	Mark Hunt	1 / 11	1 / 12	0 / 0
2	Fabricio Werdum	13 / 25	16 / 29	0 / 1

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16