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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1495

Fabricio WerdumvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marcin Tybura has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricMarcin Tybura

3.59

Strikes / min

3.56

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.30

31%

Takedown defense

70%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.9|Blue +2.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

104

50% acc · 67%

Head

41% acc · 65%

91% acc · 21%

Body

65% acc · 10%

90% acc · 12%

Leg

89% acc · 24%

By position

137

57% acc · 88%

Distance

118

49% acc · 93%

65% acc · 10%

Clinch

57% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:02

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:28

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control2:31

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 5Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

155 / 265

Sig Strikes

127 / 257

57.6%

Sig Str %

49.8%

179 / 290

Total Strikes

137 / 269

1 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:01

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Tybura	17 / 37	17 / 38	0 / 0
1	Fabricio Werdum	20 / 41	21 / 43	0 / 4
2	Marcin Tybura	28 / 50	31 / 53	0 / 0
2	Fabricio Werdum	32 / 54	32 / 54	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	26 / 49	28 / 51	0 / 0
3	Fabricio Werdum	45 / 62	46 / 63	0 / 1
4	Fabricio Werdum	20 / 35	42 / 57	1 / 2
4	Marcin Tybura	14 / 27	18 / 32	1 / 1
5	Marcin Tybura	42 / 94	43 / 95	0 / 0
5	Fabricio Werdum	38 / 73	38 / 73	0 / 0

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24