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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · M-DEC R3

Elo1493

Fabricio WerdumvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Saturday, July 8, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Werdum wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Werdum at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Alistair Overeem

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricAlistair Overeem

3.59

Strikes / min

3.67

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

55%

Strike defense

57%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.42

31%

Takedown defense

73%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

33% acc · 57%

Head

47% acc · 71%

53% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 24%

86% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

39% acc · 76%

Distance

51% acc · 86%

45% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

70% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Alistair Overeem rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:39

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 115

Sig Strikes

21 / 38

41.7%

Sig Str %

54%

107 / 176

Total Strikes

29 / 46

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alistair Overeem	5 / 10	6 / 11	0 / 0
1	Fabricio Werdum	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 1
2	Alistair Overeem	10 / 16	16 / 22	0 / 0
2	Fabricio Werdum	13 / 39	23 / 49	0 / 1
3	Alistair Overeem	6 / 12	7 / 13	0 / 0
3	Fabricio Werdum	24 / 46	72 / 97	1 / 1

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20