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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1493

Elo1535

Fabricio WerdumvsAlexander VolkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · Saturday, March 17, 2018London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 1:38

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsAlexander Volkov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkov at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Volkov has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1493

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'7"

195.58 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio Werdum

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20

latest

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricAlexander Volkov

3.59

Strikes / min

4.84

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

55%

Strike defense

54%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.54

31%

Takedown defense

68%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumAlexander Volkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.9|Blue +42.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetAlexander Volkov

By target zone

45% acc · 63%

Head

49% acc · 77%

86% acc · 25%

Body

73% acc · 17%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

54% acc · 46%

Distance

45% acc · 67%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

60% acc · 6%

56% acc · 52%

Ground

93% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Alexander Volkov rounds

Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control3:50

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:26

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:24

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 4Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 88

Sig Strikes

48 / 90

52.8%

Sig Str %

51.5%

83 / 130

Total Strikes

96 / 144

3 / 9

TDs

2 / 2

37.5%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:40

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkov	15 / 28	42 / 59	1 / 1
1	Fabricio Werdum	20 / 37	37 / 56	2 / 2
2	Fabricio Werdum	14 / 24	31 / 46	1 / 2
2	Alexander Volkov	3 / 9	20 / 27	0 / 0
3	Alexander Volkov	13 / 32	13 / 32	1 / 1
3	Fabricio Werdum	10 / 15	10 / 15	0 / 4
4	Alexander Volkov	17 / 21	21 / 26	0 / 0
4	Fabricio Werdum	4 / 12	5 / 13	0 / 1

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18