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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Werdum won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1430

Fabricio WerdumvsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Fabricio Werdum won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupFabricio Werdum: Submission grapplervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Fabricio Werdum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Gustafsson at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Fabricio Werdum threatens submissions; Alexander Gustafsson has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alexander Gustafsson has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Werdum

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-335

(77%)

1493

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'5"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio WerdumL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17

SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18

vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20

latest

Alexander GustafssonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jan Blachowicz · Sep 16

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio WerdumMetricAlexander Gustafsson

3.59

Strikes / min

4.03

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

1.53

31%

Takedown defense

83%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio WerdumAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.1|Blue -62.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -343.0|Blue +343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio WerdumTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

50% acc · 25%

Head

60% acc · 82%

Body

50% acc · 18%

100% acc · 75%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 75%

Distance

33% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Werdum rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 5

Sig Strikes

11 / 19

80%

Sig Str %

57%

4 / 5

Total Strikes

14 / 22

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Gustafsson	11 / 19	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Fabricio Werdum	4 / 5	4 / 5	1 / 2	1

Fabricio Werdum

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17