Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fabricio Camoes won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1352

Fabricio CamoesvsTommy HaydenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Fabricio Camoes won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:03

Style matchupFabricio Camoes: WrestlervsTommy Hayden: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Fabricio Camoes wins(77.4%)

Actual result: Fabricio Camoes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabricio Camoes at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabricio Camoes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Fabricio Camoes threatens submissions; Tommy Hayden has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Tommy Hayden has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tommy Hayden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Camoes

Red Corner

Tommy Hayden

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1354

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio CamoesL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Pellegrino · Mar 10

vs Melvin Guillard · Jul 12

SUBvs Jim Miller · Dec 13

SUBvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 14

latest

Tommy Hayden

oldest →

SUBvs Dennis Bermudez · Aug 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio CamoesMetricTommy Hayden

1.29

Strikes / min

1.48

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

61%

Strike defense

55%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

3.42

20%

Takedown defense

66%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio CamoesTommy Hayden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Camoes(5 fights)Tommy Hayden(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio CamoesTargetTommy Hayden

By target zone

42% acc · 83%

Head

28% acc · 71%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

29% acc · 33%

Distance

30% acc · 86%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

80% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Camoes rounds

even

Tommy Hayden rounds

Round 1Tommy Hayden edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:07

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 13

Sig Strikes

7 / 21

46%

Sig Str %

33%

26 / 33

Total Strikes

9 / 23

1 / 4

TDs

2 / 3

25%

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tommy Hayden	7 / 21	9 / 23	2 / 3	0
1	Fabricio Camoes	6 / 13	26 / 33	1 / 4	1

Fabricio Camoes

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Tommy Hayden

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2