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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Rocco Martin won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1492

Fabricio CamoesvsAnthony Rocco MartinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:16

Style matchupFabricio Camoes: WrestlervsAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Rocco Martin wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Rocco Martin at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabricio Camoes threatens submissions; Anthony Rocco Martin has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Anthony Rocco Martin has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabricio Camoes

Red Corner

Anthony Rocco Martin

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1354

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabricio CamoesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Pellegrino · Mar 10

SUBvs Tommy Hayden · Jan 12

vs Melvin Guillard · Jul 12

SUBvs Jim Miller · Dec 13

latest

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Dec 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabricio CamoesMetricAnthony Rocco Martin

1.29

Strikes / min

2.68

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

61%

Strike defense

58%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

0.71

20%

Takedown defense

68%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabricio CamoesAnthony Rocco Martin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabricio Camoes(5 fights)Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.7|Blue +138.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabricio CamoesTargetAnthony Rocco Martin

By target zone

0% acc

Head

9% acc · 100%

Body

33% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

9% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabricio Camoes rounds

even

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

Round 1Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:03

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 8

Sig Strikes

1 / 11

12%

Sig Str %

1 / 8

Total Strikes

2 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	1 / 11	2 / 12	1 / 1	3
1	Fabricio Camoes	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 0	0

Fabricio Camoes

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13