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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabio Maldonado won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1352

Fabio MaldonadovsRoger HollettUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Fabio Maldonado won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Fabio Maldonado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabio Maldonado at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabio Maldonado has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Fabio Maldonado has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Fabio Maldonado has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fabio Maldonado

Red Corner

Roger Hollett

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1356

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Mar 14

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15

latest

Roger Hollett

oldest →

vs Matt Hamill · Sep 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabio MaldonadoMetricRoger Hollett

5.29

Strikes / min

1.83

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

6.47

53%

Strike defense

34%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

1.00

61%

Takedown defense

30%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 5.62 — meaningful gap-4.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabio MaldonadoRoger Hollett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Roger Hollett(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.5|Blue -3.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +4.2|Blue -4.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabio MaldonadoTargetRoger Hollett

By target zone

53% acc · 44%

Head

52% acc · 48%

82% acc · 56%

Body

83% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

42% acc · 26%

Distance

48% acc · 41%

83% acc · 66%

Clinch

89% acc · 55%

89% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabio Maldonado rounds

even

Roger Hollett rounds

Round 1Roger Hollett edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:28Control

Round 2Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control1:35

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns1

Control1:44

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 151

Sig Strikes

29 / 44

56.3%

Sig Str %

63.3%

156 / 211

Total Strikes

32 / 47

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 7

50%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

4:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roger Hollett	5 / 8	6 / 9	2 / 2
1	Fabio Maldonado	5 / 18	11 / 24	0 / 0
2	Roger Hollett	17 / 24	17 / 24	0 / 3
2	Fabio Maldonado	38 / 53	67 / 84	0 / 1
3	Roger Hollett	7 / 12	9 / 14	0 / 2
3	Fabio Maldonado	57 / 80	78 / 103	1 / 1

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Roger Hollett

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2