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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Kingsbury won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1353

Fabio MaldonadovsKyle KingsburyUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Kingsbury won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabio Maldonado: Pressure fightervsKyle Kingsbury: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kyle Kingsbury wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Kyle Kingsbury wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Kingsbury at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kyle Kingsbury has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fabio Maldonado

Red Corner

Kyle Kingsbury

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1356

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Mar 14

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15

latest

Kyle KingsburyL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Romero · Feb 11

vs Stephan Bonnar · Nov 11

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12

vs Patrick Cummins · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabio MaldonadoMetricKyle Kingsbury

5.29

Strikes / min

2.97

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

2.64

61%

Takedown defense

52%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabio MaldonadoKyle Kingsbury

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabio MaldonadoTargetKyle Kingsbury

By target zone

48% acc · 58%

Head

36% acc · 45%

64% acc · 41%

Body

77% acc · 25%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

70% acc · 29%

By position

53% acc · 81%

Distance

44% acc · 69%

61% acc · 18%

Clinch

68% acc · 27%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabio Maldonado rounds

even

Kyle Kingsbury rounds

Round 1Kyle Kingsbury edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:04

42Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Kyle Kingsbury edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:36

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns2

Control0:55

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 144

Sig Strikes

95 / 191

52.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

122 / 189

Total Strikes

110 / 209

2 / 2

TDs

5 / 14

100%

TD %

39.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

2:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Kingsbury	42 / 88	48 / 94	2 / 3	0
1	Fabio Maldonado	31 / 54	47 / 70	0 / 0	1
2	Kyle Kingsbury	29 / 53	34 / 60	2 / 6	0
2	Fabio Maldonado	13 / 40	28 / 56	0 / 0	1
3	Kyle Kingsbury	24 / 50	28 / 55	1 / 5	0
3	Fabio Maldonado	34 / 50	47 / 63	2 / 2	0

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Kyle Kingsbury

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7