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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabio Maldonado won · S-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1352

Fabio MaldonadovsJoey BeltranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · Wednesday, October 9, 2013Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Fabio Maldonado won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabio Maldonado: Pressure fightervsJoey Beltran: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(75.5%)

Actual result: Fabio Maldonado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabio Maldonado at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joey Beltran enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Fabio Maldonado

Red Corner

Joey Beltran

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1356

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Mar 14

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15

latest

Joey BeltranL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Barry · Jan 11

KOvs Aaron Rosa · Jun 11

vs Stipe Miocic · Oct 11

KOvs Lavar Johnson · Jan 12

vs James Te Huna · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabio MaldonadoMetricJoey Beltran

5.29

Strikes / min

4.92

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.27

53%

Strike defense

54%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.48

61%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabio MaldonadoJoey Beltran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Joey Beltran(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -311.0|Blue +311.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabio MaldonadoTargetJoey Beltran

By target zone

46% acc · 70%

Head

22% acc · 65%

74% acc · 29%

Body

60% acc · 32%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

45% acc · 67%

Distance

15% acc · 37%

76% acc · 33%

Clinch

60% acc · 58%

Ground

75% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabio Maldonado rounds

even

Joey Beltran rounds

Round 1Joey Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:17

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 2Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:10

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:11

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 168

Sig Strikes

57 / 200

55%

Sig Str %

29.3%

121 / 204

Total Strikes

86 / 234

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

6:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joey Beltran	18 / 49	31 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Fabio Maldonado	15 / 23	30 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	Joey Beltran	18 / 81	22 / 85	0 / 1	0
2	Fabio Maldonado	36 / 82	48 / 94	0 / 0	0
3	Joey Beltran	21 / 70	33 / 86	1 / 3	0
3	Fabio Maldonado	36 / 63	43 / 71	0 / 0	0

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Joey Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8