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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Fabio Maldonado won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1411

Fabio MaldonadovsGian VillanteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Henderson 2 · Sunday, March 23, 2014Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

Official fight result

Fabio Maldonado won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabio Maldonado: Pressure fightervsGian Villante: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Fabio Maldonado wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Fabio Maldonado wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fabio Maldonado at +260 American odds

+$260 profit

$360 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gian Villante has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Fabio Maldonado

Red Corner

Gian Villante

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1356

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabio MaldonadoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joey Beltran · Oct 13

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

vs Corey Anderson · Nov 15

latest

Gian VillanteL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ed Herman · Oct 18

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19

SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20

vs Jake Collier · Dec 20

KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabio MaldonadoMetricGian Villante

5.29

Strikes / min

4.38

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

5.47

53%

Strike defense

55%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.45

61%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabio MaldonadoGian Villante

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Gian Villante(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.1|Blue +55.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabio MaldonadoTargetGian Villante

By target zone

100

60% acc · 76%

Head

19% acc · 39%

65% acc · 23%

Body

20% acc · 3%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 58%

By position

125

60% acc · 95%

Distance

22% acc · 42%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

58% acc · 21%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabio Maldonado rounds

even

Gian Villante rounds

Round 1Gian Villante edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:44Control

Round 2Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:11

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Fabio Maldonado edged it

Sig. strikes72

Takedowns0

Control0:10

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

132 / 217

Sig Strikes

33 / 92

51.3%

Sig Str %

40%

150 / 237

Total Strikes

46 / 108

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 12

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

5:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gian Villante	15 / 20	28 / 36	2 / 2
1	Fabio Maldonado	1 / 3	8 / 12	0 / 0
2	Gian Villante	14 / 44	14 / 44	1 / 3
2	Fabio Maldonado	59 / 102	64 / 107	0 / 0
3	Gian Villante	4 / 28	4 / 28	0 / 7
3	Fabio Maldonado	72 / 112	78 / 118	0 / 0

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights18