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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Corey Anderson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1492

Fabio MaldonadovsCorey AndersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · Saturday, November 7, 2015Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Corey Anderson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFabio Maldonado: Pressure fightervsCorey Anderson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Corey Anderson wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Corey Anderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Corey Anderson at -700 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Corey Anderson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Corey Anderson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fabio Maldonado

Red Corner

Corey Anderson

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-700

(88%)

1356

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fabio Maldonado

oldest →

vs Joey Beltran · Oct 13

vs Gian Villante · Mar 14

KOvs Stipe Miocic · May 14

KOvs Hans Stringer · Oct 14

DECvs Rampage Jackson · Apr 15

latest

Corey Anderson

oldest →

vs Patrick Cummins · Apr 18

vs Glover Teixeira · Jul 18

vs Ilir Latifi · Dec 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Nov 19

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fabio MaldonadoMetricCorey Anderson

5.29

Strikes / min

4.43

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

53%

Strike defense

59%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

4.89

61%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+2.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Fabio MaldonadoCorey Anderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fabio Maldonado(10 fights)Corey Anderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fabio MaldonadoTargetCorey Anderson

By target zone

43% acc · 62%

Head

37% acc · 67%

59% acc · 38%

Body

68% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

36% acc · 50%

Distance

36% acc · 55%

72% acc · 50%

Clinch

59% acc · 28%

Ground

71% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fabio Maldonado rounds

even

Corey Anderson rounds

Round 1Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:22Control

Round 2Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 3Corey Anderson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 54

Sig Strikes

60 / 134

47%

Sig Str %

45.7%

49 / 78

Total Strikes

97 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 15

—

TD %

41%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

8:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Corey Anderson	29 / 67	44 / 91	2 / 4
1	Fabio Maldonado	8 / 21	15 / 28	0 / 0
2	Corey Anderson	13 / 25	22 / 34	2 / 6
2	Fabio Maldonado	13 / 20	25 / 33	0 / 0
3	Corey Anderson	18 / 42	31 / 60	2 / 5
3	Fabio Maldonado	5 / 13	9 / 17	0 / 0

Fabio Maldonado

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Corey Anderson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights15