Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Anthony Perosh threatens submissions; Ryan Bader has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Ryan Bader has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ryan Bader has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Anthony PeroshL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Ryan Jimmo · Jul 12W
KOvs Vinny Magalhaes · Aug 13W
SUBvs Guto Inocente · Nov 14L
KOvs Sean O'Connell · May 15L
KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan BaderMetricAnthony Perosh
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.43Δ 2.93 — meaningful gap-1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan BaderAnthony Perosh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Anthony Perosh(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +135.0|Blue -135.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -32.0|Blue +32.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan BaderTargetAnthony Perosh
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control3:04
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control4:31
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control4:41
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
