Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jack Hermansson has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thales Leites
oldest →W
SUBvs Chris Camozzi · Aug 16L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18 Jack HermanssonL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thales LeitesMetricJack Hermansson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.86Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thales LeitesJack Hermansson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thales Leites(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +10.8|Blue -10.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thales LeitesTargetJack Hermansson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control2:27
16Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:32Control
Round 2Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:43
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:31
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
