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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Carli Judice won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1542

Elo1504

Carli JudicevsNicolle CaliariUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Carli Judice won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:30

Style matchupCarli Judice: Pressure fightervsNicolle Caliari: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Carli Judice wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Carli Judice wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carli Judice is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Nicolle Caliari has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Carli Judice has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Carli Judice (53.5%).
Carli Judice has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Carli Judice

Red Corner

Nicolle Caliari

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1542

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Carli JudiceW2 streak

oldest →

vs Gabriella Fernandes · Jun 24

KOvs Yuneisy Duben · Mar 25

vs Juliana Miller · Feb 26

latest

Nicolle Caliari

oldest →

vs Ernesta Kareckaite · Jan 25

SUBvs Shauna Bannon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Carli JudiceMetricNicolle Caliari

9.32

Strikes / min

3.46

6.62

Strikes absorbed / min

7.01

57%

Strike defense

53%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

2.88

80%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.70Δ 6.25 — meaningful gap-3.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Carli JudiceNicolle Caliari

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Carli Judice(4 fights)Nicolle Caliari(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.5|Blue -37.5

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Carli JudiceTargetNicolle Caliari

By target zone

44% acc · 78%

Head

31% acc · 81%

75% acc · 22%

Body

25% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 88%

Distance

31% acc · 94%

83% acc · 9%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Carli Judice rounds

even

Nicolle Caliari rounds

Round 1Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:43

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:25

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Carli Judice edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 225

Sig Strikes

32 / 101

50.7%

Sig Str %

36%

117 / 235

Total Strikes

35 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 8

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:18

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolle Caliari	11 / 40	13 / 42	0 / 5
1	Carli Judice	38 / 78	44 / 86	0 / 0
2	Nicolle Caliari	16 / 51	17 / 52	0 / 2
2	Carli Judice	47 / 108	49 / 110	0 / 0
3	Nicolle Caliari	5 / 10	5 / 10	1 / 1
3	Carli Judice	24 / 39	24 / 39	0 / 0

Carli Judice

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Nicolle Caliari

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights2