Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim BoetschL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 16L
SUBvs Jacare Souza · Feb 17W
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Jun 17L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Apr 18L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Mar 19 Dan Henderson
oldest →L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim BoetschMetricDan Henderson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim BoetschDan Henderson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Boetsch(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -119.3|Blue +119.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim BoetschTargetDan Henderson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
