Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Renan Barao has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19 Phillipe NoverL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Yui Chul Nam · May 15L
vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Dec 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Renan BaraoMetricPhillipe Nover
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.12evenly matched on net striking-0.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Renan BaraoPhillipe Nover
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Renan Barao(10 fights)Phillipe Nover(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +18.5|Blue -18.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -171.0|Blue +171.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Renan BaraoTargetPhillipe Nover
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control0:11
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Renan Barao edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns2
Control1:18
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
