Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Marcos Rogerio de LimaW3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Nov 21L
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22W
SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22W
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23W
KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Derrick LewisMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Derrick LewisMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -24.6|Blue +24.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Derrick LewisTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:29
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
