Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mads Burnell has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mike Santiago has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mads BurnellL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Sep 17L
SUBvs Arnold Allen · May 18 Mike SantiagoL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Sep 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mads BurnellMetricMike Santiago
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.43Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mads BurnellMike Santiago
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mads Burnell(3 fights)Mike Santiago(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +125.3|Blue -125.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mads BurnellTargetMike Santiago
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mike Santiago edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control2:24
17Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:15Control
Round 2Mike Santiago edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control2:14
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:14Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:33
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
