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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Soa Palelei won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1402

Soa PaleleivsWalt HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · Friday, November 7, 2014Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Soa Palelei won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:49

Style matchupSoa Palelei: WrestlervsWalt Harris: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Soa Palelei wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Soa Palelei wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Soa Palelei at -178 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Walt Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Soa Palelei is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Walt Harris has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Soa Palelei has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).
Soa Palelei has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Soa Palelei

Red Corner

Walt Harris

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1490

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'5"

205.74 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Soa PaleleiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Aug 13

KOvs Pat Barry · Dec 13

KOvs Ruan Potts · May 14

vs Jared Rosholt · Jun 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Aug 15

latest

Walt HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19

KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Soa PaleleiMetricWalt Harris

2.47

Strikes / min

3.05

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

48%

Strike defense

54%

2.20

TDs / 15 min

0.29

66%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Soa PaleleiWalt Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Soa Palelei(6 fights)Walt Harris(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +88.7|Blue -88.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Soa PaleleiTargetWalt Harris

By target zone

47% acc · 88%

Head

19% acc · 41%

25% acc · 4%

Body

45% acc · 41%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

44% acc · 79%

Distance

30% acc · 95%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

63% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Soa Palelei rounds

even

Walt Harris rounds

Round 1Walt Harris edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:18

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Soa Palelei edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:16

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 51

Sig Strikes

22 / 72

44%

Sig Str %

30.5%

43 / 77

Total Strikes

24 / 74

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Walt Harris	10 / 38	12 / 40	0 / 0
1	Soa Palelei	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 2
2	Walt Harris	12 / 34	12 / 34	0 / 0
2	Soa Palelei	19 / 38	38 / 64	1 / 3

Soa Palelei

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights6

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15