Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Jonathan Brookins has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Jonathan Brookins has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Brookins (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jonathan Brookins
oldest →W
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 10W
KOvs Vagner Rocha · Feb 12L
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 12 Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jonathan BrookinsMetricCharles Oliveira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.94Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jonathan BrookinsCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jonathan Brookins(5 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -169.4|Blue +169.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -18.0|Blue +18.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jonathan BrookinsTargetCharles Oliveira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Jonathan Brookins rounds
Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:53
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:14
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
