Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brad TavaresL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24L
vs JunYong Park · Oct 24W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25L
KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25 Aaron Simpson
oldest →W
vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11W
vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brad TavaresMetricAaron Simpson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.09evenly matched on net striking+1.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brad TavaresAaron Simpson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brad Tavares(10 fights)Aaron Simpson(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.4|Blue +9.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brad TavaresTargetAaron Simpson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:48Control
Round 2Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control0:56
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:25Control
Round 3Aaron Simpson edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:02
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
