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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Patrick Cummins won · S-DEC R3
Elo1373
Patrick Cummins
Elo1411

Patrick CumminsvsGian VillanteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Patrick Cummins won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPatrick Cummins: WrestlervsGian Villante: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Patrick Cummins wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Patrick Cummins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Patrick Cummins at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Gian Villante enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Gian Villante is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Patrick Cummins has lost 71% of fights by KO.
  • Gian Villante has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Patrick Cummins
Red Corner
VS
Gian Villante
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1373
Elo
1411
45
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · May 16
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17
L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18
L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18
L
KOvs Ed Herman · May 19
latest
Gian VillanteL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ed Herman · Oct 18
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 19
L
SUBvs Maurice Greene · Jun 20
L
vs Jake Collier · Dec 20
L
KOvs Chris Barnett · Nov 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Patrick CumminsMetricGian Villante
4.26
Strikes / min
4.38
3.35
Strikes absorbed / min
5.47
55%
Strike defense
55%
4.49
TDs / 15 min
0.45
28%
Takedown defense
83%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91Δ 2.00 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1503Strikes39.6 vs 45.5Takedowns3.7 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.11 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs -0.2
Patrick CumminsGian Villante

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Gian Villante(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -37.9|Blue +37.9
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Patrick CumminsTargetGian Villante

By target zone

70
43% acc · 81%
Head
66
35% acc · 92%
7
78% acc · 8%
Body
3
75% acc · 4%
9
90% acc · 10%
Leg
3
100% acc · 4%

By position

74
45% acc · 86%
Distance
67
35% acc · 93%
12
67% acc · 14%
Clinch
0
0% acc
0
Ground
5
83% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Patrick Cummins rounds
1
even
0
Gian Villante rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:39
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:19
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control1:06
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
86 / 182
Sig Strikes
72 / 196
46.3%
Sig Str %
36.7%
92 / 188
Total Strikes
85 / 210
1 / 11
TDs
0 / 0
5.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:04
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gian Villante23 / 5535 / 680 / 00
1Patrick Cummins17 / 3920 / 421 / 60
2Gian Villante24 / 7224 / 720 / 00
2Patrick Cummins37 / 7138 / 720 / 40
3Gian Villante25 / 6926 / 700 / 00
3Patrick Cummins32 / 7234 / 740 / 10

Patrick Cummins

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights13

Gian Villante

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18