Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Prates enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).
- Carlos Prates has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ian Machado Garry
oldest →W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25 Carlos PratesW5 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25W
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ian Machado GarryMetricCarlos Prates
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.92Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ian Machado GarryCarlos Prates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -26.7|Blue +26.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ian Machado GarryTargetCarlos Prates
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
5
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:12
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns2
Control1:25
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 4Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns2
Control0:58
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:34
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
