Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3
Elo1492
Sergio Pettis
Elo1490
Chris Kelades

Sergio PettisvsChris KeladesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Kelades wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Kelades at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergio Pettis has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Pettis
Red Corner
VS
Chris Kelades
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1492
Elo
1490
32
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'7"
175.26 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio Pettis
oldest →
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17
W
vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18
L
vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18
L
vs Rob Font · Dec 18
W
vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19
latest
Chris Kelades
oldest →
W
vs Paddy Holohan · Oct 14
L
SUBvs Ray Borg · Feb 15
W
vs Chris Beal · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio PettisMetricChris Kelades
3.88
Strikes / min
2.40
2.91
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
65%
Strike defense
48%
0.85
TDs / 15 min
1.04
67%
Takedown defense
53%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.97Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1529 vs 1517Strikes56.3 vs 34.7Takedowns1.2 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.83 vs 0.33Form0.4 vs 0.4
Sergio PettisChris Kelades

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Sergio Pettis(10 fights)Chris Kelades(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -41.0|Blue +41.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio PettisTargetChris Kelades

By target zone

53
51% acc · 87%
Head
22
24% acc · 63%
1
50% acc · 2%
Body
7
58% acc · 20%
7
100% acc · 11%
Leg
6
86% acc · 17%

By position

53
53% acc · 87%
Distance
21
22% acc · 60%
7
64% acc · 11%
Clinch
12
75% acc · 34%
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
2
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Sergio Pettis rounds
0
even
0
Chris Kelades rounds
Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control0:35
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control1:41
14Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:20Control
Round 3Sergio Pettis edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control2:38
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
61 / 112
Sig Strikes
35 / 112
54.7%
Sig Str %
30.7%
85 / 140
Total Strikes
69 / 148
2 / 10
TDs
1 / 7
22%
TD %
16.5%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
4:54
Ctrl Time
1:56

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Kelades7 / 3511 / 390 / 40
1Sergio Pettis24 / 4830 / 541 / 20
2Chris Kelades14 / 3724 / 471 / 30
2Sergio Pettis20 / 3428 / 440 / 20
3Chris Kelades14 / 4034 / 620 / 00
3Sergio Pettis17 / 3027 / 421 / 60

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14

Chris Kelades

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4