← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Kyler Phillips won · SUB R3

Elo1476

Elo1441

Kyler PhillipsvsMarcelo RojoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kyler Phillips won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:48

Style matchupKyler Phillips: WrestlervsMarcelo Rojo: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Kyler Phillips wins(83.8%)

Actual result: Kyler Phillips wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyler Phillips at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyler Phillips enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kyler Phillips

Red Corner

Marcelo Rojo

Blue Corner

-435

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1476

Elo

1441

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kyler PhillipsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Raoni Barcelos · Aug 23

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 24

vs Rob Font · Oct 24

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 26

latest

Marcelo RojoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Mar 21

KOvs Francis Marshall · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kyler PhillipsMetricMarcelo Rojo

4.75

Strikes / min

4.92

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

6.42

58%

Strike defense

55%

2.82

TDs / 15 min

0.46

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kyler PhillipsMarcelo Rojo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kyler Phillips(10 fights)Marcelo Rojo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kyler PhillipsTargetMarcelo Rojo

By target zone

39% acc · 65%

Head

26% acc · 58%

93% acc · 18%

Body

50% acc · 9%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

90% acc · 33%

By position

43% acc · 79%

Distance

36% acc · 96%

89% acc · 10%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kyler Phillips rounds

even

Marcelo Rojo rounds

Round 1Kyler Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns2

Control1:37

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kyler Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:22

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kyler Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:34

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 164

Sig Strikes

55 / 153

50%

Sig Str %

39%

90 / 176

Total Strikes

57 / 155

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcelo Rojo	15 / 49	16 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Kyler Phillips	34 / 64	36 / 66	2 / 4	0
2	Marcelo Rojo	35 / 94	36 / 95	0 / 0	0
2	Kyler Phillips	38 / 85	44 / 91	0 / 2	0
3	Marcelo Rojo	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
3	Kyler Phillips	8 / 15	10 / 19	1 / 2	2

Kyler Phillips

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights9

Marcelo Rojo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3