Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Roy Nelson has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Fabricio Werdum has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Fabricio Werdum
oldest →W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricFabricio Werdum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 3.56 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonFabricio Werdum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetFabricio Werdum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control2:14
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:55Control
Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:30
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
