Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fernando Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Julian Erosa has lost 78% of fights by KO.
- Fernando Padilla has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Julian ErosaL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24W
SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Apr 25L
vs Melquizael Costa · May 25L
KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26 Fernando Padilla
oldest →W
SUBvs Luis Pajuelo · Mar 24L
KOvs Sean Woodson · Dec 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Julian ErosaMetricFernando Padilla
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Julian ErosaFernando Padilla
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Julian Erosa(10 fights)Fernando Padilla(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Julian ErosaTargetFernando Padilla
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Fernando Padilla edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
