Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Antonio Carvalho has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Antonio Carvalho has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Antonio CarvalhoW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Felipe Arantes · Jan 12W
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Jul 12W
vs Rodrigo Damm · Nov 12 Darren Elkins
oldest →W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Antonio CarvalhoMetricDarren Elkins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.59evenly matched on net striking+0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Antonio CarvalhoDarren Elkins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Antonio Carvalho(4 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.3|Blue +9.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Antonio CarvalhoTargetDarren Elkins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
