Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tyron Woodley has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colby CovingtonL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
vs Leon Edwards · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24 Tyron WoodleyL3 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colby CovingtonMetricTyron Woodley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colby CovingtonTyron Woodley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colby Covington(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +93.4|Blue -93.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colby CovingtonTargetTyron Woodley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control2:18
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control1:19
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 3Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control3:23
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 4Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control4:25
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Colby Covington edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control0:36
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
