Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Leon Edwards has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25 Nate Diaz
oldest →W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricNate Diaz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leon EdwardsNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -16.5|Blue +16.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leon EdwardsTargetNate Diaz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:32
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control1:09
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control2:18
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 5Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
