Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Joel Alvarez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Vicente Luque
oldest →W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26 Joel Alvarez
oldest →L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Feb 22W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Jul 23W
KOvs Elves Brener · Aug 24W
KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 24L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Vicente LuqueMetricJoel Alvarez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.44Δ 1.94 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Vicente LuqueJoel Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Vicente Luque(10 fights)Joel Alvarez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -9.3|Blue +9.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -175.0|Blue +175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Vicente LuqueTargetJoel Alvarez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
48Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:35Control
Round 3Joel Alvarez edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:55Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
