Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kevin AguilarL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19L
KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20L
vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20 Tucker LutzL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23L
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kevin AguilarMetricTucker Lutz
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.85Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kevin AguilarTucker Lutz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -64.4|Blue +64.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kevin AguilarTargetTucker Lutz
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tucker Lutz edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
33Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:19Control
Round 2Tucker Lutz edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:46
34Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:31Control
Round 3Tucker Lutz edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:06
32Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:15Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
