Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Marcin PrachnioL2 streak
oldest →W
vs William Knight · Feb 23L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 23L
SUBvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jul 24L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricMarcin Prachnio
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.35Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap+2.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam AlveyMarcin Prachnio
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Marcin Prachnio(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -58.3|Blue +58.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam AlveyTargetMarcin Prachnio
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sam Alvey edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:41
Knockdowns2
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
