Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alexander Hernandez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alexander Hernandez has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alexander Hernandez
oldest →L
vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24W
vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24W
KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25L
DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26 Kurt Holobaugh
oldest →L
vs Thiago Moises · May 19W
SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23W
vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24L
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alexander HernandezMetricKurt Holobaugh
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.22evenly matched on net striking+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alexander HernandezKurt Holobaugh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +33.3|Blue -33.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alexander HernandezTargetKurt Holobaugh
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Alexander Hernandez rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:09
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns1
Control2:01
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
Round 3Alexander Hernandez edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control4:29
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
