Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt Brown
oldest →L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23 Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt BrownMetricStephen Thompson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt BrownStephen Thompson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Brown(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +16.1|Blue -16.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt BrownTargetStephen Thompson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns3
Control3:19
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control2:14
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control2:30
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
